Race To The Straits May 3 and 4- Pre Race Analysis

This weekend was the annual Race To The Straits. This is a two day race from Shilshole Marina north of Seattle to Port Townsend on Saturday and return on Sunday. This race is for doublehanded(two people) and singlehanded(one person). Another unique part of this race is that the handicaps are applied at the start with the slowest boats starting before 0800 and the fastest boats starting nearly three hours later. In a perfect world, all the boats should be finishing at the same time. This year, there is a record numbers of entries of 132 last time I checked.

This is a hard race to predict. With boats starting over a period of a few hours, early starting boats sail in much different conditions then later starting boats. The boats that benefit on the first day often are hindered the second day.

CURRENTS
So, first I will review the currents. The currents the first day are basically ebbing until early afternoon. The early starting boats will see more benefit from this current with many more hours of sailing with the current than the later starting boats. If the wind cooperates, most of the boats should be past the Double Bluff buoy before the flood current starts. By later afternoon, the current should be flooding strongly and boats still on the course will need to find current relief.

 Currents in Admiralty Inlet for May 3

On the second day, the ebb current will be against the fleet most of the day until early afternoon. The first boats to start will sail the most time against the current. The ebb current velocity will continue to increase until mid day. Boats should have a plan for current relief. After rounding the Double Bluff buoy, the fleet could still be fighting ebb current, but by early afternoon, the current should change to flood for the rest of the day.

Currents in Admiralty Inlet for May 4

WINDS

As I write this on Thursday night, here is what the predictions indicate. On Saturday, it looks like the winds may start out light at Shilshole from the south-SSE. The winds appear to increase to about 10 knots through the day a the fleet heads north. The winds north of Marrowstone Island appear lighter throughout the day.

On Sunday, the winds start out at about 15 knots from the SSE. They are predicted to stay somewhat steady down Admiralty Inlet. Near the finish the winds could start getting lighter at 10 knots.

MY PLAN

With the winds from the southerly direction, I would probably head down the rhumb line toward Double Bluff. I would keep an look out for increasing or decreasing winds both ahead and behind. As I near Pt No Pt, I would check my drift toward the west from the current and head more east. Rounding Double Bluff buoy, I would plan my approach carefully. Many boats get set to the west at the buoy and either find themselves being swept past, perform a panic jibe or even hit the buoy. After Double Bluff, I would sail toward Marrowstone Pt, but at the first sign of the current changing to flood, I would head toward Marrowstone Island and look for current relief along the east shore. After Marrowstone Pt, I would be tempted to head high of the finish buoy to get out of the current, but I would be careful to avoid a dead wind zone along the north shore of Marrowstone Island.Approaching the finish is usually tricky and I would keep my options open.

The return leg on Sunday will require a gut check to do well. First it will be a beat toward Marrowstone Pt. I would probably make a few hitches toward Marrowstone Island so that I could approach the point close to the west in a strong backeddy. Assuming the wind is strong enough I would short tack close to the east end of the point in 15 feet of water(or less). It will probably takes a few tacks to get around and it will be crowded with a lot of earlier starting boat also struggling to get around the point. Once around, I would short tack along the shore staying out of the ebbing river not far off shore. Care needs to be taken not to run aground as there is a flat shelf that extends quite aways from the shore. As I approach the south end of Marrowstone Island, the ebb should be reducing and at some point, I will tack for Double Bluff. I will probably be short of the buoy and will tack close to shore for current relief. After Double Bluff, I would tack toward the Kitsap shore and short tack around Pt No Pt and along the shore until the current is mostly slack. At some point, I might tack toward the King County shore south of Pt Wells and work up that shore to the finish. The current should be favorable by now.

So there it is! I have probably said a lot more than I should. I have enjoyed this race and raced the first one and every other one except for 2006 and this year, everytime singlehanded. The organization is great and I have watched it grow every year in both quantity of boats and quality of organization. Hope everyone has a good time.